基于数值模拟下的中国外汇储备潜在损失分析

外汇储备余额持续积累加剧了外汇储备资产潜在损失的进一步扩大。文章通过对中国外汇储备积累方式的分析,认为造成外汇储备损失的主要路径有三个:冲销债券的利息支付、国际短期资本的投机和人民币对美元汇率升值。在此基础上,文章数值模拟了不同路径下的外汇储备潜在损失,得出以下结论:一是人民币过快升值会加重我国外汇储备损失,应根据我国金融市场的发展状况,逐步改革汇率体系,令人民币更富弹性;二是改变中国外汇储备管理模式,从以往的被动型、防御型模式变成主动型、投资型模式,一方面逐步放松资本账户管制,允许个人和机构海外投资,另一方面加大中国的主权财富基金——中国投资公司的投资力度和规模,通过市场化手段获得更高收益。     

Wage inequality in developing countries: South–South trade matters

The relationship between trade liberalization and inequality has received considerable attention in recent years. The major purpose of this study is to present new results on the sources of wage inequalities in manufacturing taking into account South–South (S–S) trade. Globalization has not only lead to increasing North–South (N–S) trade, but it has also changed the direction and composition of trade as more trade is carried out among developing countries. In this study, we find that increasing wage inequality is associated more with the South–South trade liberalization than with the classical trade liberalization with northern countries. A part of this increasing wage inequality due to S–S trade comes from the development of N–S trade relationship in S–S trade that increases wage inequality in middle-income developing countries. This study also seeks to shed some light on the link between the direction of trade and technological change. We explore the fact that S–S trade leads to a technological change biased toward skill-intensive sectors more than N–S trade. This indirect effect increases wage inequality for all developing countries, but it is more important in low-income countries.     

美国县级总体规划文本框架要素界定和组织结构的启示

通过对比我国县级土地利用总体规划和美国加州县级总体规划文本框架要素的界定情况及组织结构,分析目前我国县级土地利用总体规划文本框架要素及其组织存在的问题。目前我国县级土地利用总体规划的文本框架在目标、原则、政策、标准、建议和实施措施的设定都存在一定的宏观性和概括性,难以体现地方的实际特点。最后就如何改进我国规划文本编制进行讨论,规划文本的科学性和微观性取决于规划编制过程中不同部门之间的衔接和合理组织,因此要实现规划文本的明晰表达首先要在规划的组织和协调方面进行改革。     

Can farmers extend their cultivation areas in urban agriculture? A contribution from agronomic analysis of market gardening systems around Mahajanga (Madagascar)

The rapid urbanization in developing countries implies an increasing pressure on urban agriculture for production. As most perishable food products come from this agriculture in close proximity to population concentrations, we analysed from an agronomic point of view how market-garden farmers can meet this increasing urban demand. This work took place in the case of Mahajanga, a secondary city with high increasing demographic rate on the Northwest coast of Madagascar. Based on preliminary surveys to characterize the farming systems (on a sample of 91 farms), 11 market-garden farmers chosen in the three main agricultural zones of the urban area were surveyed during two years. Surveys aimed at understanding their decision rules in crop choices, crop allocation to land and resource management, and to estimate their room for manoeuvre to increase their leafy vegetable areas under cultivation. The wholesalers and retailers who buy the farmers’ produce were also surveyed. A previous model of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory was used to analyse the on-farm surveys and cartographic methods (GIS and on-farm manual representations) were used to quantify the land use. We highlight the following major points. (1) The leafy vegetable production in the surveyed farms already intensively uses land: farmers have complex decision rules largely depending on the water dynamics in the two main environments (lowlands and lakesides) where leafy vegetables are cultivated during the dry season. (2) The scarcity of farmers’ resources (labour money and water) leads to very little internal room for manoeuvre to increase the leafy vegetable production in the farms. (3) At territorial level however, some land reserve exist in one of the lowlands, but not on lakesides. The water availability for agriculture must be better informed through specialized hydrologic studies, as one of the main constraints nowadays to extend the agricultural area. An extrapolation to other cases of urban agriculture is then discussed as well as the role of agronomy to help urban planners to consider the place of agriculture in the urban development.     

宪政视野下的司法独立——基于中外宪法文本的比较研究

宪法是国家制度设计的蓝本,是宪政理念最直接的体现,是司法独立的一面镜子,更是实践司法独立思想的首要制度保障。司法独立思想来源于古希腊政治哲学家的宪政思想与分权制衡的理念,它具有三大特征：司法权独立,法院独立和法官独立。就司法权力的独立而言,主要西方国家有两大特征：一是设置了专门行使司法权力的机构;二是明确规定了司法权力的独立行使范围。1949年以前,我国宪法文本对于＂司法制度＂的设计与西方国家存在着很大的相似性,有几个宪法文本就是学习与借鉴英美国家来制定的。1949年建国以后,我国宪法文本中对于＂司法制度＂的设计也与之前的风格迥异。     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?

This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face rising oil prices. However, this effect is amplified by an increase in the oil price subsequent to an increase in the volatility (i.e. inverse feedback effect) with a two-day delayed effect. This lead-lag relation between the oil price and its volatility is central to any type of trading strategy based on futures and options on the OVX implied volatility index. It is of interest to traders, risk- and fund-managers.     

Small transaction costs, absence of arbitrage and consistent price systems

The aim of this note is to establish a criterion of absence of arbitrage opportunities under small transaction costs for a family of multi-asset models of financial markets.     

A stochastic dominance approach to the measurement of discrimination

This note suggests a bridge between stochastic dominance (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1970 [17], 1973 [18]), inequality measurement (Atkinson, 1970 [1]) and discrimination measurement (Gastwirth, 1975 [10]). Discrimination orderings are defined and illustrated through discrimination curves, in the same spirit as stochastic dominance analysis. The main result, which links the second order discrimination curve and the Gastwirth discrimination index, also generalizes the equivalence between Generalized Lorenz dominance and second order stochastic dominance.